Saturday, November 29, 2008

Are We Seeing A Repeat Of 1929?

By Don Bethune

Partially because of the rapid growth in telecommunications and Information Technology we have seen growth parameters including the GDP rising continuously during the 1990's any beyond. While economic indicators are naturally cyclical, the recent sharp declines on the global scale have far exceeded the expectations of economic experts analysts. In Asia as well as Europe and the USA these declines have been the steepest since 1929.

The criticality of the current world financial situation has indicated a strong need to strengthen and perhaps reinvent our existing economic and financial models and practices. The financial rescue, or bailout if you prefer, packages put in place just recently initially did little to stop the plunge in stock indexes. Admittedly it will take some time to tell if these financial aids will have the desired effect of turning the USA and global economies around.

For instance the experts comments over the fall of one of the largest banks in US the Lehman Brothers is said to be a calculated and well predicted with time. The policies, strategy, pay role to the employees, exposure to in-calculated field, mortgages over last decade clearly indicates a poor management and policies adopted by the company. If these were so much visible to the experts then why action were not take with time? similar kind of stories lies beneath the fall of other biggies too. These have made many investors, employees and IT companies to shut down the shop or making them bankrupt.

We have to ask, how many other financial institutions face the same fate and what financial help to retool their business models. What is it that needs to be done to enable our economies to get back on track and experience a solid and sustainable growth rate once again. Even the G7 has yet to find the answer to this dilemma.

Ironically at the present juncture economies like China and US who always stand Back to Back have without joining their had are trying their level best to save their economy which in turn, though un-intentional is helping other countries to recover from the same.

The question arises here is how long and how many times a country or banks would be able to prevent these debacle? Is our strategy of investment or portfolio being adopted is healthy enough to promise a sustainable growth rate. Surprisingly the recent G7 meeting couldn't find out feasible solutions.

The small investor having been burned by the recent slide will no doubt be very cautious as to when and where to invest any additional money. And well he should be until the political leaders of the countries most involved get together and put in place practices designed not only to reverse the current situation to prevent it from happening again.

All to often when we read the news about the plunging stock market we may feel unaffected unless we ourselves are players in the market. What is not always so apparent is the slowdown in the economy, noticeable loss of jobs and lowering of wages resulting from loss of share values. The average citizen needs to be aware of the effects of what is going on in the marketplace on his or her own well being. The road to recovery isn't just about saving major financial institutions but also about educating the average citizen about what this all can mean to him or her.

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